The chances of an American golfer being crowned as European No. 1 for the first time were already strong heading into the Race to Dubai finale this week.

Jon Rahm’s withdrawal from the season-ending DP World Tour Championship has made it even more likely.

Collin Morikawa and Billy Horschel — Americans with big wins on English soil this year — arrived in Dubai as the top two players on the European Tour’s money list for the 2021 season.

Rahm was their nearest challenger in the Race to Dubai standings but the world No. 1 has pulled out, citing “the demands of a long season,” leaving only four other players in with a chance of finishing the season as the tour’s leading player — or what was once known as the “Order of Merit” winner.

And Tyrrell Hatton, Min Woo Lee, Matt Fitzpatrick and Paul Casey have their work cut out denying Morikawa or Horschel the Race to Dubai title, with all needing to win while also relying on neither American being near the top of the standings.

More likely is a duel between Morikawa and Horschel on what could be a historic week for the United States on the European Tour.

“I think that it’s just another step closer to … ultimately my goal is to be a Hall of Famer, to have a heck of a career that I can be inducted into the Hall of Fame at one point in my career,” Horschel said.

“There’s a lot on the line this week, and we’ll see how it all plays out when it comes to Sunday.”

Neither American could be classed as a European Tour regular. In fact, Morikawa tops the standings having only played two tournaments — the Scottish Open and the Dubai Desert Classic — outside of the majors and the U.S.-based World Golf Championships.

Winning the British Open at Royal St. George’s in July has basically propelled him to first place, where he sits on 3,856.40 points. That’s 236 points more than Horschel, whose big wins this year were at the Dell Technologies Match Play and then at the BMW PGA Championship, the European Tour’s flagship event based at its headquarters at Wentworth.

There are 2,000 points on offer to the winner at the Earth Course this week — and Hatton is on 2,472.1 points in fourth place. Hatton, for example, must win and needs Morikawa to finish worse than a three-way tie for third and for Horschel to finish worse than a three-way tie for second.

Lee, Fitzpatrick and Casey require the Americans to be even lower down the leaderboard.

Fitzpatrick is the defending champion having won at Jumeirah Golf Estates last year for the second time, after 2016.

“I’m thinking I could probably play it blindfolded,” the Englishman said.

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