The NFL's most plugged-in reporters believe that absent a major collapse, Arthur Smith is unlikely to be fired and is expected to return for his fourth season as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Both Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero don't see Smith being fired unless there is a frustrating collapse to finish off the 2023 season. This aligns with past public rumors under team owner Arthur Blank, suggesting that Smith will return if the Falcons finish strong.

Why It Matters

Arthur Smith's potential retention as head coach has significant implications for the team's future performance and strategic direction, as well as for Smith's leadership and tenure in the organization.

By the Numbers
  • In 2014, it was rumored that then-head coach Mike Smith would return in 2015 if he could beat the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South, but the team lost and Smith was replaced with Dan Quinn.
  • In 2019, it was rumored that then-head coach Dan Quinn would return in 2020 if the Falcons were able to finish out the season strong, and Quinn returned after the team won 6 of its final 8 games.
  • If Atlanta finishes the season with solid performances in its final two games, Smith is expected to be in good standing heading into Year 4.
State of Play
  • Arthur Smith's future as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons hinges on the team's performance in the final games of the 2023 season.
  • There is an indication that the team had to deal with the cap hell put in place under Thomas Dimitroff, and the first few seasons were considered rebuilding years.
  • The team's handling of the quarterback situation is under scrutiny, with indications that addressing this problem will be a major expectation moving forward.
Bottom Line

The potential retention of Arthur Smith as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons underscores the critical importance of the team's performance in the remaining games of the season, with significant implications for the team's trajectory and strategic decisions.