The St. Louis Cardinals' projection for the 2024 season has shifted due to a mix of injuries, offensive struggles, and inconsistent bullpen performances impacting their results.

By the Numbers
  • Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) projects a 84.9-77.1 record for the Cardinals, with a 36.5% chance to win the division and a 57.1% chance to make the playoffs.
  • Fangraphs projects a 71.6-90.4 record for the Cardinals, giving them just a 2.5% chance to win the division and a 13.5% chance to make the playoffs.
Yes, But

Projection outlets like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference offer more conservative estimates compared to Baseball Prospectus.

State of Play
  • Baseball Prospectus places the Cardinals at the top of the projection standings, with the best chance of winning the division and making the playoffs.
  • However, Fangraphs projects the Cardinals to finish last in the division, highlighting a significant variance in expectations.
What's Next

The Cardinals' performance in the upcoming games will be crucial in determining if they can defy the projections and secure a spot in the postseason.

Bottom Line

The St. Louis Cardinals face a challenging season with divergent projections painting varying pictures of their potential success, leaving fans hopeful but uncertain about the team's playoff prospects.