Carlos Estévez, known for his dramatic Kamehameha victory pose, is having a breakout season in MLB with career-best stats, including a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His signature pitch, a 4-seam fastball, is thrown 61.1% of the time and boasts impressive velocity (96.8 MPH) and movement (17.1 inches vertical), enabling him to limit opponents to a .198 batting average. However, despite his success, there are indications that his impressive numbers may be partly due to luck, with a decrease in whiff rates and discrepancies between actual and expected outcomes.

By the Numbers
  • Career-best ERA: 2.45
  • Career-best WHIP: 0.91
  • Fastball velocity: 96.8 MPH (89th percentile)
  • 4-seamer usage: 61.1% of the time
Yes, But

Despite Estévez's notable improvements, he's experiencing a decline in fastball whiff rates, dropping from 28.5% in 2023 to 23% in 2024, raising concerns whether his success is sustainable or inflated by fortunate outcomes.

State of Play
  • Estévez’s fastball has shown increased induced vertical movement and a higher release angle, contributing to improved performance.
  • There are signs of potential regression with his fastball’s performance, evidenced by discrepancies between expected and actual metrics.
What's Next

As the season progresses, analysts will be watching closely to see if Estévez can maintain his current level of performance or if luck will catch up to him, potentially affecting his contributions in high-stakes games.

Bottom Line

Estévez has elevated his pitching to new heights, but underlying indicators suggest a need for caution, as his success may not be fully sustainable without adjustments to his approach.