The New England Patriots face off against the Denver Broncos in the 2026 AFC Championship after the Patriots defeated the Houston Texans and the Broncos overcame the Buffalo Bills in overtime. The game is especially compelling due to Broncos' starting quarterback Bo Nix being sidelined with a broken ankle, forcing Jarrett Stidham to take the helm against Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Scheduled for kickoff at 3 p.m. ET at Empower Field, the weather is expected to be cold and snowy, adding to the challenge for both teams. The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points and the over/under for the game is set at 43.5 points.

By the Numbers
  • Patriots have a 14-3 record as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
  • New England has covered the spread in five of their last six games, with a 14-5 record against the spread this season.
State of Play
  • Denver's Bo Nix is out for the postseason due to injury, affecting team dynamics.
  • The Patriots are on a five-game winning streak heading into this matchup.
What's Next

The winner of the Patriots-Broncos game will advance to the Super Bowl, facing off against either the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks. With both teams having strong season records, the outcome promises to impact future playoff strategies and team morale significantly.

Bottom Line

This matchup could be pivotal, especially for the Patriots, who are favored due to the quarterback injury on the Broncos' side. Both teams have strong defensive and offensive metrics that will play a crucial role in determining who moves on to the Super Bowl.