The race for the top No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament is heating up, with Illinois surpassing UConn after the latter's recent loss. Arizona remains the No. 1 overall seed, but the competition is fierce as Duke and Michigan are closely trailing. This year's selection process reflects the ongoing trend where factors such as loss volume and head-to-head results take a backseat to metrics like Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and Strength of Record (SOR). As Selection Sunday 2026 approaches, teams are reminded that metrics, rather than losses, often dictate bracket positions.

By the Numbers
  • UConn dropped to a lower seed after a loss against St. John's, allowing Illinois to claim the final No. 1 spot.
  • Duke leads the WAB rankings with a score of 7.85, closely followed by Arizona, who boasts 10 Quad 1 victories.
Yes, But

Despite having fewer losses, UConn faces challenges due to their low number of Quad 1 and Quad 1A victories compared to Illinois, which highlights the nuanced and sometimes counterintuitive nature of the selection criteria.

State of Play
  • Arizona remains unbeaten among high-major teams, holding the No. 1 overall seed.
  • UConn's position is jeopardized after a recent loss, allowing Illinois to leapfrog them in the rankings.
What's Next

As more games unfold, the selection committee continues to evaluate teams based on a complex set of metrics, indicating that the final seeding positions could shift dramatically in the coming weeks.

Bottom Line

Selection criteria emphasize metrics over basic win-loss records, reminding teams that successful tournament positioning relies on qualitative assessments rather than direct head-to-head outcomes.