The concept of the “new-manager bounce” in football is under scrutiny—does it genuinely result in improved team performance or is it merely a myth? Recent examples, like Manchester United’s resurgence under Michael Carrick, highlight how teams often show immediate improvement after a managerial change. Clubs like Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest are banking on this phenomenon as they fight to avoid relegation. Data from the past five seasons suggests that newly appointed managers see an uptick in points per game in 77% of cases in their first five matches.

By the Numbers
  • 77% of managerial changes result in improved points per game over the next five matches.
  • Of 35 managerial changes analyzed, only 7 had a lower points-per-game ratio than their predecessors.
Yes, But

While data points towards an overall improvement, the novelty often fades with only 16 of the 27 managers showing improvement lasting beyond 10 matches. Some analysts suggest that perceived bumps may often reflect teams' performance levels prior to a change rather than the effect of the new manager.

State of Play
  • Tottenham and Nottingham Forest are currently positioned dangerously close to relegation (16th and 17th, respectively).
  • New managers Igor Tudor and Vitor Pereira are now at the helm, hoping to spark quick recovery in their teams’ fortunes.
What's Next

As both teams navigate the crucial final matches of the season, the immediate focus will be on achieving results that could steer them away from relegation. If Tudor and Pereira can foster team unity and motivate players effectively, the bounciness predicted in the data may yet provide relief.

Bottom Line

The potential for a new-manager bounce exists, but clubs must recognize that maintaining long-term improvement requires strategic planning beyond initial results. Investing in a change may be costly, but even a short-term uplift in performance can be vital in the fight for survival.