The AP Top 25 preseason poll signifies the start of college football. Although often criticized as irrelevant to actual performance, it serves as a historical measure of team strength dating back to 1936. Analysis of polls from the past 28 seasons shows that national champions typically begin in the top ranks; the mean preseason ranking of champions is 6.1, while the most predictive spot is No. 2, held this year by Oregon. Furthermore, various teams showcase underwhelming or impressive performances based on their preseason rankings, shedding light on the poll's fluctuating accuracy over time.

By the Numbers
  • The average preseason ranking of national champions since 1998 is 6.1.
  • Only 3 teams have won the championship starting outside of the top 15 since 1998.
Yes, But

Despite its historical value, the AP Poll has seen decreased accuracy in predicting successful teams, largely due to the evolving landscape of college football, including the impact of the transfer portal which introduces more variability.

State of Play
  • The current preseason poll retains traditional powerhouses like Ohio State and Georgia, despite changes in the sport.
  • Amidst continual shifts, this year's top 5 reflects a blend of familiarity and unpredictability in team performances.
What's Next

As the season unfolds, observers will watch if new dynamics in college football will alter the effectiveness of the AP Poll, particularly with potential surprises in team performances and championships.

Bottom Line

The AP Top 25 remains a relevant tradition in college football, providing insight into team strengths, though its predictive ability is waning in the face of constant transformation in the sport.