Predicting 5 upsets in Week 6 of the 2026 college football season

It’s time for Week 6 of the college football season. Before we get to the picks for this week, let’s take stock of a trend that’s been developing through the first few weeks of the campaign. Upsets are down across the board. Through Week 5, underdogs of +105 or more have won outright just 17.6% of the time. From 2021-2025, teams fitting that criteria won 25% of the time in Weeks 1-5. Underdogs with a moneyline between +200 and +400 are winning only 14% of games this season. Historically, teams with those moneylines convert at a 27% rate through week…