ESPN’s FPI strongly favors Texas to beat No. 7 Ole Miss in Saturday night’s top-25 matchup in Austin, despite the Rebels’ stronger recent form and Texas’ two-game losing streak. The forecast points to a potential turnaround for the Longhorns, who are looking to avoid a third straight loss.

By the Numbers
  • ESPN FPI gives Texas a 71% chance to win.
  • Kalshi’s market puts Texas at 59% and Ole Miss at 42%.
  • Texas is 4-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play; Ole Miss is 5-1 and 3-1.
Yes, But

The FPI’s projection runs against the teams’ recent trajectories: Ole Miss has climbed to No. 7, while Texas has dropped from No. 1 to No. 19 after losses to Oklahoma and Florida. The Longhorns’ home-field advantage and urgency could help explain the model’s confidence.

What’s Next

The teams meet Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET in Austin on ABC. The game will test whether Texas can halt its slide or Ole Miss can carry its momentum into a tough road setting.

Bottom Line

Texas is the model’s pick, but the gap between its FPI projection and the teams’ recent results makes this a meaningful test of whether the Longhorns can reverse course.