Main Story

Riley O’Brien’s uneven 2026 season raises questions about whether St. Louis can trust him as its closer in 2027. Despite a disastrous second-half stretch and a costly six-run collapse, his league-leading save total, strong pitch mix and lack of an obvious in-house challenger make him the Cardinals’ best current option.

By the Numbers
  • O’Brien led the National League with 38 saves and blew 8.
  • He posted a 3.43 ERA in the first half, then a 5.11 ERA in 27 second-half appearances.
  • His sweeper had a 47.2% whiff rate, with opponents hitting .138 against it.
  • In 56 of 66 appearances, he allowed no more than 1 earned run.
  • The Cardinals finished 77-85.
Yes, But

O’Brien’s second-half command problems were real: he walked 16 hitters in 24⅔ innings, and his August 23 meltdown sharply worsened his season numbers. Still, that one outing inflated his overall ERA; without it, his season ERA would have been 3.23 rather than 4.08.

Bottom Line

O’Brien isn’t a sure thing, but the evidence supports giving him the 2027 closer job. St. Louis should address his command and keep alternatives ready, while recognizing that one awful outing shouldn’t outweigh a season of high-leverage success.