MLB’s free-agent market could move quickly before the collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1 and a potential lockout begins. Players have reason to secure contracts before negotiations stall, while teams may spend now rather than risk tougher limits under a new labor deal. Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira and Hiromi Itoh also face a Dec. 1 deadline to sign with an MLB team or return to Japan.

By the Numbers
  • MLB teams spent more than $1.7 billion on free agents in November 2021, before the last lockout.
  • More than 140 players became free agents after the World Series.
  • Five players signed contracts worth at least $100 million before the last lockout.
  • Three Japanese players posted Nov. 1 now face a potential Dec. 1 MLB signing deadline.
Yes, But

Spending aggressively before the labor deal is settled could leave teams with costly commitments if the new rules limit payrolls. But a salary cap, even if adopted, is unlikely to take effect immediately; MLB has indicated any cap could be phased in.

State of Play
  • Top free agent Tarik Skubal is expected to sign before a potential lockout.
  • His decision could trigger a chain reaction as teams turn to other available players.
  • Without changes to MLB’s posting agreement with Japan, posted players cannot negotiate or sign during a lockout.
What’s Next

If Skubal signs early, teams that miss out may quickly pursue other top targets, particularly starting pitchers. That could accelerate the market before Dec. 1, with Japanese players facing added urgency to finalize deals before the deadline.

Bottom Line

The looming labor stoppage may make November a spending window, not a pause: teams and players could prefer certainty now over waiting to see what the next CBA brings.