Main Story

Michael King enters free agency after a healthy, 32-start season that reinforced his value as a dependable starter. The 32-year-old’s ability to limit hard contact and his effective changeup support a projected deal of three to five years at $27 million to $38 million annually. But a declining strikeout rate and weaker underlying metrics could temper teams’ willingness to offer top dollar or a long commitment. The Padres, Cubs, Mets, White Sox and Orioles each have rotation needs that could make King a fit.

By the Numbers
  • 2026: 32 starts, 185 innings, a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts.
  • 2024: 2.95 ERA and 201 strikeouts in 173⅔ innings.
  • 2026 strikeout rate: 21.0%, down from 27.7% in 2024; walk rate: 9.2%.
  • Contract projection: 3–5 years, with an average annual value of $27 million–$38 million.
Yes, But

King’s contact management remains a strength: Statcast placed him in the 86th percentile for average exit velocity allowed and the 89th percentile for hard-hit rate. However, his 4.13 FIP and 4.42 expected ERA were notably higher than his 3.21 ERA, raising questions about whether his results will hold as his strikeouts decline. A shorter deal could justify a higher annual salary; a longer commitment would likely require a lower one.

State of Play
  • San Diego has mutual interest in a reunion, and King has described the West Coast as a second home.
  • The Padres, Cubs, Mets, White Sox and Orioles have distinct rotation needs that could make King appealing.
  • King is not eligible for a qualifying offer, so signing him would not cost a team draft-pick compensation.
What's Next

King’s market will turn on how clubs weigh his 2026 workload and run prevention against the strikeout decline and gap between his ERA and underlying indicators. Teams seeking reliable innings may pursue him, but the length and annual value of a deal are likely to hinge on how much they trust his contact-management skills to endure.

Bottom Line

King has established himself as a full-time starter, but his next contract will test whether teams believe his results are sustainable without his earlier strikeout rate. The clearest bet is a meaningful multi-year deal—priced carefully to account for the risk of paying into his mid-to-late 30s.