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The Dodgers want to keep Tarik Skubal after acquiring him for a late-season push, but the price could be historic. A major contract would add enormous luxury-tax costs to MLB’s already highest projected payroll, likely forcing Los Angeles to trade players or accept a staggering bill. The decision may hinge on whether Skubal signs before a new collective bargaining agreement—and whether the Dodgers can move quickly enough.

By the Numbers
  • In 10 Dodgers starts, Skubal posted a 2.61 ERA across 62 innings, with 70 strikeouts, 13 walks and 4 home runs allowed.
  • Skubal won back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025.
  • His projected contract range is $350 million to $500 million; one example is 9 years and $405 million.
  • Los Angeles’ projected 2027 luxury-tax payroll is about $384.8 million—roughly $77.8 million above the top threshold.
  • In the $405 million example, the Dodgers’ total payroll and luxury-tax costs could approach $592 million for 2027.
Yes, But

Skubal has performed well in Los Angeles and reportedly enjoyed his time with the organization, giving the Dodgers a reason to pursue a reunion. But the financial burden could require trading valuable players, while an impending salary cap could make a long-term commitment riskier. Waiting for clarity may protect the team, but could reduce Skubal’s earning potential.

State of Play
  • The Dodgers are considered unlikely to retain Skubal at present, but remain in contention as long as he is unsigned.
  • Potential trade candidates include Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernández; Tanner Scott and Edwin Díaz could also be moved.
  • Blake Snell has publicly urged Skubal to return after the Dodgers’ postseason exit.
What’s Next

The Dodgers must weigh a fast offer against the uncertainty of labor negotiations and the possibility of a salary cap. Trading players could create payroll room, but the team may need to act before Skubal signs elsewhere or before a new agreement changes the economics.

Bottom Line

Keeping Skubal is possible, but it would demand more than a record-setting contract: Los Angeles may also have to sacrifice roster flexibility and absorb a historic tax bill. The key question is whether the Dodgers believe another elite arm is worth reshaping the team’s finances around.