Main Story

Florida and Duke dominate experts’ early picks to win the 2027 NCAA men’s tournament. Duke is viewed as a talent-rich contender seeking Jon Scheyer’s first title, while Florida’s returning core gives the defending champions a strong case to repeat. Other predictions range from Texas Tech and Illinois reaching the Final Four to expansion opening the door for more .500-level SEC teams.

By the Numbers
  • 6 experts picked different winners for the 2026 tournament; this year’s first-place picks went only to Florida or Duke.
  • The tournament is expanding from 68 to 76 teams.
  • Florida returns 6 of its top 7 scorers.
  • Duke is projected to pursue 35 or more wins for a third straight season.
Yes, But

These are preseason projections, not guarantees: Duke and Florida both have questions to answer after last season’s tournament exits. Several predictions also depend on specific conditions, including Texas Tech’s players returning to full health and eligibility, Miami’s Malik Reneau remaining eligible, and Missouri getting Mark Mitchell on the court.

What's Next

The season will test whether Florida’s continuity and Duke’s depth translate into title runs—and whether the expanded field meaningfully changes the tournament’s competitive landscape. Expert picks also spotlight potential breakout players, including Arizona’s Caleb Holt and Duke freshman Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje.

Bottom Line

The early consensus centers on Florida and Duke, but the broader forecast is just as striking: expansion could bring more bubble teams into the field while making it harder for mid-majors to reach the Final Four.